Arlington, VA - Today, FMI - The Food Industry Association commented on the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) updated Food Price Outlook numbers and the factors impacting the price of beef products on grocery store shelves. FMI Vice President, Tax, Trade, Sustainability and Policy Development Andy Harig offered the following statement.
“Beef prices are a reflection of basic economics at work due to low supply and sustained high consumer demand. U.S. cattle inventory is at its lowest herd levels since the 1960s, and recovery is expected to be gradual since it takes two to three years for cattle to mature. Meanwhile, sales volume of beef products increased 4.5% last year compared to 2023, according to FMI’s The Power of Meat 2025. These two factors combined are the main driving force behind today’s higher beef prices.
“While food-at-home prices have shown signs of stabilization – providing some relief to consumers and retailers alike – inflationary pressures persist across all categories, with animal proteins leading the trend. For beef in particular, sustained drought out West, increased feed costs, and labor challenges have all led to higher costs for ranchers and made it more challenging to maintain a robust domestic beef supply.
“According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, average retail prices for beef and veal rose for the seventh consecutive month in July 2025. Prices increased 2.5% from June to July and are up 11.3% year-over-year. All 16 subcategories within beef saw significant price hikes, underscoring the volatility in protein pricing. The good news is that USDA’s Food Price Outlook currently predicts beef prices will increase only 4.4% in 2026, a significant decrease in the rate of inflation witnessed so far this year.
“As an industry committed to delivering safe, affordable, and nutritious food, we are cautiously optimistic about the moderation in food-at-home inflation. However, we continue to monitor broader economic factors, such as supply chain disruptions, labor costs, and shifts in consumer purchasing power that could impact affordability.”
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